Sixteen billion euros a year is the value of the human capital that Italy trains and then lets profit elsewhere, according to CNEL calculations. A silent hemorrhage that the National Council of Economy and Labor has tried for the first time to measure by directly asking those who have experienced it first-hand, i.e. young people who live and work abroad. The report Young Expats. How to make them come backcarried out by Cnel with REF Ricerche and Questlab, collected over 2,500 responses from Italians aged between 18 and 34 who have left the country: 1,803 were analyzed in this first version of the study, the results of which were anticipated by president Renato Brunetta at The European House-Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio.
Who are the young people who are leaving
The sample recounts a literal brain drain, not just a metaphorical one: 93% of those interviewed have at least a bachelor’s degree, 45% a master’s degree, 22% a master’s degree, 14% a three-year degree, 12% even a doctorate. More than half, 58%, left Italy immediately after finishing their studies, without ever having worked in their country. The preferred destination remains Europe, with 87% of respondents currently living in a country on the continent (60% in the European Union and 27% outside the EU borders), while 8.5% chose North America.
Why are we leaving, and under what conditions would we return
The reasons for the departure coincide, almost point by point, with the conditions set for a possible return. What pushes young Italians across the border are above all salaries, judged too low by four out of five respondents, together with a work culture perceived as backward and skills that struggle to find recognition in Italy. 49% cite the slowness of bureaucracy, 48% the weight of clientelism and recommendations, a share that rises significantly among those who left from the South. Conversely, a significant increase in wages is the most cited condition for returning: 83% of those interviewed consider it extremely relevant. By adding the different levels of importance, the job opportunities suited to one’s profile reach 88% and the recognition of merit reaches 79%. This is followed by incentives to return (75%) and a better conciliation between private life and work (72%), while economically sustainable housing (63%) and the efficiency of public services (62%) remain further behind, i.e. the areas in which public intervention would have more direct margins. When asked about the absolute priority, over half of the respondents (53%) indicated the salary, 19% the job opportunities and just 6% the meritocracy in the strict sense. In the North the wage demand rises to 55%, while in the South it drops to 48% and leaves more room for merit and stability of employment.
A hemorrhage from 441 thousand young people in thirteen years
Behind the questionnaires, the Cnel places a statistical framework that measures the extent of the phenomenon: between 2011 and 2024, Italy lost, net of returns, 441 thousand young people between 18 and 34 years old, with a record negative balance of over 61 thousand units in 2024 alone. The anomaly is quantified by the Synthetic Index of Migration Flows developed by the Cnel itself: for each of the same age who arrives in Italy from an advanced economy, 14.5 leave, compared to a substantially equal ratio in the other large European economies. The value of lost human capital is estimated at 159.5 billion euros in the period 2011-2024, approximately 16 billion per year according to the most recent trends. And the wage gap, calculated at purchasing power parity, has widened with all the main partners: towards Spain, Italy went from an advantage of 1% in 2000 to a disadvantage of 7% in 2024; towards Germany from a delay of 14% to 36%; towards Switzerland from 39% to 71%.
