Donald Trump continues to talk about an irresistible America, once again central and desired by all. Unfortunately for him, however, outside the stages of his rallies the reality is completely different: fewer foreign visitors and more and more people who decide to move abroad from the United States. An unusual phenomenon for America which sees a net migration that in 2025 would have become negative for the first time in at least half a century.
According to analysis by the Brookings Institution, in fact, last year the United States recorded a balance between -10 thousand and -295 thousand people, i.e. more exits than entries. At the same time, tourism is also showing signs of weakening, with a decline of around –9% in visitors in 2025 compared to 2024.
Key numbers: who enters and who leaves
The framework is built on a strong imbalance between inputs and outputs. Legal entries (including temporary visas, green cards and refugees) are between around 2 and 3 million people, but down compared to previous years. Green cards issued abroad drop to around 560,000–575,000 in 2025, compared to 670,000 in 2024. Refugees drop from 105,000 to less than 12,000. Entries without inspection are difficult to measure but are estimated between 22 thousand and 39 thousand. For 2026, Brookings hypothesizes a still uncertain scenario: net migration could oscillate between -925 thousand and +185 thousand, with a high probability of remaining very low or negative.
On the opposite front, exits are growing: ICE deportations are estimated at between 310,000 and 315,000, while voluntary exits linked to the political and social context show numbers well above the norm and could involve between 210,000 and 405,000 people. In total, the outgoing pressure is sufficient to reverse the national migration balance. For 2026, in the most rigid scenario, these outflows could reach 575 thousand.
Policies and internal climate: the accelerating factor
But why are more and more US citizens choosing to leave the country? Mainly for personal, political and economic reasons. Specifically, we talk about internal politics (89%), the search for opportunities (73%) and the cost of living (57%). According to various analyses, the change in flows is linked to a more restrictive political context. The tightening of migratory controls, the reduction of humanitarian programs and the increase in expulsions have changed the behavior of immigrants already present, pushing a growing share towards voluntary return migration or towards third countries.
In practice, those with a fragile status can leave for fear of detention, family separation, or the impossibility of returning. Those with legal status may choose not to remain in a country perceived as less welcoming. And then there are the US citizens who do not automatically fall into the Brookings migration data, but tell a cultural part of the same fracture.
The impact on work: growth almost stopped
The slowdown in migration has direct effects on the labor market. “Equilibrium” employment growth, which in recent years even exceeded 120,000–200,000 new jobs per month, drops dramatically in 2025. In the second half of the year, a level of only 20,000–50,000 monthly places is estimated, while in 2026 it could reach close to zero or even become negative (–20,000 to +20,000 in the most critical scenario). This means a more fragile and less dynamic labor market, with already visible effects on employment and unemployment, which recorded a slight increase of around +0.3 percentage points.
Consumption and GDP: billions lost in the US economy
The reduction of the immigrant population also has direct effects on the real economy. The decline in consumption linked to the lower presence of foreign workers and their greater uncertainty leads to an estimated loss of between 40 and 60 billion dollars in 2025, with a further decline of between 10 and 40 billion in 2026.
The impact on GDP is measurable: growth is reduced by approximately –0.2 / –0.3 percentage points in 2025 and up to –0.32 in 2026 in the most negative scenario. The direct contribution of the lower production of immigrant labor also weighs in at around –0.18 percentage points.
A country changing direction
The overall picture describes a profound change: fewer entries, more departures and a growing propensity of residents themselves to leave the United States. It’s not just numbers, but a structural signal that concerns work, consumption and perception of the country in the world. America has built a huge part of its strength on the idea that it is the place to go. Now, however, he has to deal with another, more uncomfortable question: what happens when a part of the world, and a part of those who already live there, begins to look towards the exit?
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