The North is still waiting for the autumn rains and, apparently, will have to be patient. The bad weather of the next few days has chosen another path, that of the Adriatic and Southern Italy, where between Sunday and Tuesday a Mediterranean cyclone could dump up to 120 millimeters of rain. These are the forecasts from Luca Lombroso, meteorologist at Meteored Italia, which arrived as October ends with temperatures already in late autumn. In the countryside and in the Alpine and pre-Alpine valley bottoms the minimum temperatures drop to 2-4 °C, it is cold even in the Centre, while in the South the nights remain around 12-15 degrees.
Cold air from the east and a vortex at high altitude
For Lombroso the picture is clear. The anticyclone moves from the mid-Atlantic towards central-northern Europe and opens the way to cold air from the east, directed towards the Balkans and Italy, with the Adriatic side in the forefront. Between Sunday and Monday that influx will trigger a cyclogenesis between the Ionian Sea and the south of the peninsula, supported by a cold vortex at high altitude with temperatures between -20 and -25 °C at 500 hPa. The Scandinavian anticyclonic block will take care of prolonging the phase, destined to consolidate and attract more cold air.
The first rains on Saturday, the turning point on Sunday
On the last day of October the North will have irregular clouds, more compact over the Emilia-Romagna Apennines and lower Piedmont, and a strengthening bora, but no rain. In the center the Tyrrhenian Sea will remain sunny, while on the Adriatic side and in eastern Umbria cold weather and first rainfall will arrive. In the South it will rain in Puglia, with showers in Tyrrhenian Calabria and eastern Sicily.
Sunday 1st November the music changes. Marche, Abruzzo and Molise will have widespread rain and even strong thunderstorms, the Tyrrhenian regions and Sardinia will have some intermittent showers. In the South, storms and intense thunderstorms are expected on the islands of Campania, the Aeolian Islands and Ustica, with more severe phenomena in Puglia between Brindisi and Salento. In the North, weak rainfall in Emilia-Romagna and lower Piedmont, with snow above 800 meters in the Maritime Alps and above 1,200 in the Emilia-Romagna Apennines. Maximum temperatures will drop to 12-15 °C in the North, 15-18 in the Center and 18-20 in the South, with strong bora and north winds and stormy seas on the Adriatic.
The peak on Monday, then the improvement
On Monday, the heaviest bill will fall on Abruzzo and Molise, where accumulations could reach 100-120 mm and snow will fall above 1,000 metres. In the South, bad weather will be strong in Puglia, Basilicata, Calabria and eastern Sicily, with intense rain and thunderstorms also fueled by seas that are still too warm for the season. Tuscany, Lazio and much of Umbria will instead see an improvement, and some clearing will also return to the Marche. In the North, after a clear start in the Alps and in the North-West, the clouds will return from the east with light rain and snowfall over lower Piedmont and the Tuscan-Emilian-Romagna Apennines, while Liguria will remain on the margins. From Tuesday the South should take a breather. Temperatures will drop further, but without widespread frosts, with values between 6 and 15 °C in the North, between 8 and 17 in the Center and between 10 and 20 in the South.
Colder yes, Burian no
Lombroso also puts a stop to the more alarmed tones. News is circulating that evokes an intense cold and inappropriately disturbs the Burian. Current projections only point to the arrival of colder air, with temperatures dropping from mid-week, and currently show no signs of significant snowfall at low altitudes, let alone on the plains. The first cold outbreaks at the beginning of November, observes the meteorologist, are part of the normal evolution of the season.
