The numbers say that espresso is about to become a small luxury: according to the Unimpresa Study Centre, by the end of 2025 a cup at a bar could cost up to 2 euros, with an increase of over 50% compared to 2020. It is not a simple economic question: in Italy coffee is a daily gesture, a symbol of conviviality and identity. But its price tells a lot about the global tensions that are changing our habits.
Behind the bull run there is a dense network of causes: climate change is reducing harvests in Brazil and Vietnam, which together produce half of the world’s coffee. 2024 saw an 80% increase in the price of raw beans, while droughts and torrential rains made harvests unstable and unpredictable. Added to this are energy and logistics costs, which have increased after the energy crisis and the blockages in large ports.
Meanwhile, Arabica coffee futures have hit record highs, and Italian bars are facing rising expenses for energy, raw materials and labor. Today the national average is around 1.30 euros, with peaks of 1.43 in Bolzano and just 0.95 in Catanzaro. An Italy divided even in front of the bar counter.
But if the price rises, the desire for coffee does not decrease. Every year in our country over 327 million kilos of beans are consumed, for a turnover of 5.2 billion euros. However, curiosity is also growing towards alternatives created to respond to both environmental challenges and high prices.
The new “cups”
In recent years, drinks that resemble coffee have been rediscovered, but do not come from the tropics. This is the case of chickpea coffee, caffeine-free and obtained by toasting legumes and cereals, or date stone coffee, typical of North Africa, aromatic and rich in minerals. Then there is carob coffee, with a sweet and smooth taste, and chicory coffee, much loved in France and already known to our grandparents during periods of scarcity. In Germany and Austria, coffee made from rye or toasted figs is also widespread, with an intense aroma and a slightly caramelized flavour.
All these alternatives have one thing in common: they have a low environmental impact, do not require long intercontinental transport and can be produced locally, reducing emissions and dependence on tropical crops. Furthermore, many are caffeine-free, therefore suitable for those who want to reduce consumption without giving up the gesture of sipping something warm and toasted.
The future of our espresso
Italy remains one of the strongest markets in Europe, but the risk is that the cup loses its popular soul, turning into a small luxury. Experts invite us to rethink the way we consume coffee, choosing more traceable, fair and sustainable products, or exploring local and creative surrogates.
Ultimately, the ritual matters more than caffeine: the scent that rises from the cup, the chat with the bartender, the shared break. Whether it is Arabica, chicory or date, what really must not change is our desire to meet around a coffee.
